Jump to content


Six Foot Marathon Weather Forecast for 2013


  • You cannot reply to this topic
191 replies to this topic

#1 Paul Every

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,792 posts
  • Joined: 13-May 03
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 11 February 2012 - 10:23 AM

Forecast is for reasonable temperatures.

http://www.accuweath...?monyr=3/1/2013

Posted Image

Support our Australian advertisers:

#2 Rico

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 763 posts
  • Joined: 15-November 08
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Canberra

Posted 11 February 2012 - 01:35 PM

This looks a bit premature.  First we have to do the forecast thread for the rescheduled 2012 event.

#3 Paul Every

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,792 posts
  • Joined: 13-May 03
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 08 March 2012 - 12:27 PM

Bump! Posted Image

#4 Coogee1979M

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 576 posts
  • Joined: 17-February 08
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Eastern Suburbs, NSW

Posted 08 March 2012 - 12:30 PM

View PostPaul Every, on 08 March 2012 - 12:27 PM, said:

Bump! http://www.coolrunning.com.au/forums//public/style_emoticons/default/ninja.gif

A bit premature don't you think Paul? ;-)

#5 howcanhegosofast

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 107 posts
  • Joined: 24-August 11
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Katoomba NSW

Posted 08 March 2012 - 12:36 PM

So now we have a whole year of checking the 6 foot weather thread to look forward to !
Just think of all the training we could fit in instead of checking this thread every day for a year ...

#6 halfwaydown

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,059 posts
  • Joined: 28-April 11
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 08 March 2012 - 12:36 PM

Six Foot Marathon Weather River Forecast for 2013

Edited by halfwaydown, 08 March 2012 - 12:37 PM.


#7 Nickelass

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 494 posts
  • Joined: 23-January 08
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 08 March 2012 - 12:47 PM

Never too early.  Good discussion here http://forum.weather...Discussion_2012

Probability of El Nino conditions looks good.  Next year we may have bushfires to contend with ;)

#8 Nova

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 162 posts
  • Joined: 09-December 11
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Balgowlah

Posted 08 March 2012 - 12:47 PM

Given the cancellation of this years event I guess the probability of it going ahead next year is high, even if they are mutually exclusive events.

#9 flyingemu

    it's Sir emu to you...

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,117 posts
  • Joined: 28-November 08
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Brisbane

Posted 08 March 2012 - 01:07 PM

View PostCoogee1979M, on 08 March 2012 - 12:30 PM, said:

View PostPaul Every, on 08 March 2012 - 12:27 PM, said:

Bump! Posted Image

A bit premature don't you think Paul? ;-)
Awww, is someone upset that they got beaten to the punch? ;)

#10 Coogee1979M

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 576 posts
  • Joined: 17-February 08
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Eastern Suburbs, NSW

Posted 08 March 2012 - 01:10 PM

View Postflyingemu, on 08 March 2012 - 01:07 PM, said:

View PostCoogee1979M, on 08 March 2012 - 12:30 PM, said:

View PostPaul Every, on 08 March 2012 - 12:27 PM, said:

Bump! http://www.coolrunning.com.au/forums//public/style_emoticons/default/ninja.gif

A bit premature don't you think Paul? ;-)
Awww, is someone upset that they got beaten to the punch? Posted Image

It was bound to happen eventually

#11 Sarge

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 770 posts
  • Joined: 09-May 03
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:SPRINGWOOD, BLUE MOUNTAINS. N.S.W.

Posted 08 March 2012 - 01:38 PM

I like your mind, Paul.

#12 Bellthorpe

    草分け

  • Administrator
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,293 posts
  • Joined: 23-October 04
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Paris

Posted 08 March 2012 - 01:43 PM

View PostNova, on 08 March 2012 - 12:47 PM, said:

Given the cancellation of this years event I guess the probability of it going ahead next year is high, even if they are mutually exclusive events.

Actually no, this year's cancellation has no bearing at all on the probability of cancellation next year.

#13 brewer

    will get it right one day...

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,325 posts
  • Joined: 19-July 08
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Northern Sydney metro

Posted 08 March 2012 - 03:26 PM

Big ass bushfires bring on the cancellation of 6FT 2013. You heard it here first folks. Posted Image

#14 halfwaydown

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,059 posts
  • Joined: 28-April 11
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 08 March 2012 - 03:51 PM

View PostBellthorpe, on 08 March 2012 - 01:43 PM, said:

View PostNova, on 08 March 2012 - 12:47 PM, said:

Given the cancellation of this years event I guess the probability of it going ahead next year is high, even if they are mutually exclusive events.

Actually no, this year's cancellation has no bearing at all on the probability of cancellation next year.
To put some numbers on it:
The Cox river rises to 'impassable' levels on average about once every year.
A couple of years this has happened 3 times - mostly back in the 80's and early 90's
Between 2002 and 2005  the gauge would suggest - it didn't happen at all.
Up until now the event and the race haven't co-incided.  The bummer was it did this time.

#15 Paul Every

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,792 posts
  • Joined: 13-May 03
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 08 March 2012 - 04:13 PM

View Postbrewer, on 08 March 2012 - 03:26 PM, said:

Big ass bushfires bring on the cancellation of 6FT 2013. You heard it here first folks. Posted Image

April 2013: Brewer arrested on suspicion of arson. You heard it here first, folks. Posted Image

#16 Paul Every

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,792 posts
  • Joined: 13-May 03
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 14 September 2012 - 05:39 PM

Bump! :p

View PostNova, on 14 September 2012 - 04:00 PM, said:

176 day weather forecast suggests 18, clearing skys


#17 Coogee1979M

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 576 posts
  • Joined: 17-February 08
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Eastern Suburbs, NSW

Posted 05 October 2012 - 03:40 PM

With the recent 30-plus degree days in Sydney, what are everyone's thoughts on how this might influence the weather in Katoomba in March?

View PostPaul Every, on 14 September 2012 - 05:39 PM, said:

Bump! :p

View PostNova, on 14 September 2012 - 04:00 PM, said:

176 day weather forecast suggests 18, clearing skys


#18 halfwaydown

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,059 posts
  • Joined: 28-April 11
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 15 December 2012 - 03:58 PM

BUMP


Just checked online - the Long range weather forecast for Katoomba March 2013 is.....$4.95

B*gger if I'm paying that - so I've gone to more traditional method.

The snails in the garden are eating the bouganvillea leaves but avoiding the hydrangea flowers -
Outlook -overcast with drizzle, possibly clearing.

#19 johnnyboyrun

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,176 posts
  • Joined: 27-November 08
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Vaucluse

Posted 15 December 2012 - 04:04 PM

View Posthalfwaydown, on 15 December 2012 - 03:58 PM, said:

BUMP


Just checked online - the Long range weather forecast for Katoomba March 2013 is.....$4.95

B*gger if I'm paying that - so I've gone to more traditional method.

The snails in the garden are eating the bouganvillea leaves but avoiding the hydrangea flowers -
Outlook -overcast with drizzle, possibly clearing.
River height ?

#20 halfwaydown

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,059 posts
  • Joined: 28-April 11
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 15 December 2012 - 04:13 PM

Currently 0.6 metres at Island Hill (1km downstream)
Last year on race day it was over 1.6 metres at Island Hill

Attached Files



#21 Baldric

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 175 posts
  • Joined: 13-February 10
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Victoria

Posted 15 December 2012 - 04:49 PM

View Posthalfwaydown, on 15 December 2012 - 03:58 PM, said:

BUMP

B*gger if I'm paying that - so I've gone to more traditional method.

The snails in the garden are eating the bouganvillea leaves but avoiding the hydrangea flowers -
Outlook -overcast with drizzle, possibly clearing.
Good to see a bit of good old commonsense weather forecasting.
Thanks for that, halfwaydown.

#22 frankie17

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,540 posts
  • Joined: 04-May 09

Posted 24 December 2012 - 08:59 PM

Quite humid today. I think the river will be relatively high for 2013.

#23 Paul Every

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,792 posts
  • Joined: 13-May 03
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 25 December 2012 - 07:14 AM

View Postfrankie17, on 24 December 2012 - 08:59 PM, said:

Quite humid today. I think the river will be relatively high for 2013.

Relative to 2011 or to 2012? :unsure:

#24 vat

    Watchless. Repeat, watchless.

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,451 posts
  • Joined: 10-April 03
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Brisbane

Posted 25 December 2012 - 09:43 AM

View PostPaul Every, on 25 December 2012 - 07:14 AM, said:

View Postfrankie17, on 24 December 2012 - 08:59 PM, said:

Quite humid today. I think the river will be relatively high for 2013.

Relative to 2011 or to 2012? :unsure:

I think relative to the levels prior to the Late Heavy Bombardment.  I imagine they would have been quite low then.  Easy to get entry, too.

#25 frankie17

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,540 posts
  • Joined: 04-May 09

Posted 27 December 2012 - 09:34 AM

Relative to my knee.

#26 Nova

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 162 posts
  • Joined: 09-December 11
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Balgowlah

Posted 28 January 2013 - 07:48 PM

Bump ��

#27 Rico

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 763 posts
  • Joined: 15-November 08
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Canberra

Posted 28 January 2013 - 08:11 PM

Is there any water in the river at all this year?

#28 Nova

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 162 posts
  • Joined: 09-December 11
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Balgowlah

Posted 28 January 2013 - 11:30 PM

http://www.bom.gov.a...=':Praying:' />

#29 Supersam1979

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,109 posts
  • Joined: 12-January 09
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Planet Earth

Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:45 AM

Im not entered this time, but I'm praying that with a short time left Rhe rain in the region will cease and we can have a decent event on the day.

#30 halfwaydown

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,059 posts
  • Joined: 28-April 11
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 29 January 2013 - 07:44 AM

There's a bit of water in there now - but not the levels of 2012 (yet)

Attached Files



#31 frankie17

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,540 posts
  • Joined: 04-May 09

Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:14 PM

Is water height a weather forecast?  Isn't this the cart before the horse?

#32 johnnyboyrun

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,176 posts
  • Joined: 27-November 08
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Vaucluse

Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:36 PM

View Postfrankie17, on 29 January 2013 - 04:14 PM, said:

Is water height a weather forecast?  Isn't this the cart before the horse?
Water height will be what will cancell the race, and if its like it was last year the track will be soaked as well!....No need to worry yet. plenty of time!!

#33 Supersam1979

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,109 posts
  • Joined: 12-January 09
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Planet Earth

Posted 29 January 2013 - 05:35 PM

Too true. To early to tell. It will just be up to what mother nature serves up in the interim. Doesn't always have to be water though. This last weekend's fires on the black range serve to show they could also be a threat.

Keep training well.

#34 Coogee1979M

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 576 posts
  • Joined: 17-February 08
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Eastern Suburbs, NSW

Posted 09 February 2013 - 12:14 PM

Looks like a much drier event than 2012:
http://www.weatherzo...tral-tablelands

#35 David C

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 240 posts
  • Joined: 09-June 06
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 10 February 2013 - 04:55 AM

View PostCoogee1979M, on 09 February 2013 - 12:14 PM, said:

Looks like a much drier event than 2012:
http://www.weatherzo...tral-tablelands
... this wouldn't be too much of a prediction - with less rain than the year it was flooded out.

#36 johnnyboyrun

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,176 posts
  • Joined: 27-November 08
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Vaucluse

Posted 21 February 2013 - 10:20 AM

A little bit of rain forecast over this weekend, glad it's not race weekend.... We have had a bit of rain this month and Cox River is still easily crossable...It makes me think that there must have been a shitload of water for it to be to the torrent it was last year

#37 halfwaydown

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,059 posts
  • Joined: 28-April 11
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 21 February 2013 - 10:46 AM

Current levels at Island Hill Site Gauge attached (1km downstream from crossing) :

Last year the river was running pretty similar levels UNTIL 1st March when it rose above 1.5m mark at Island Hill and peaked at 2.45m on 3rd March and didn't drop below that mark until about noon on the 11th March.


Note Island Hill level is not equivalent to Cox river crossing level but is indicative of condition of river.  The crossing is commonly registering somewhere between 0.5 to 1.0 metres at Island Hill on race day going on historic records.

Attached Files



#38 Colin

    Still dreaming...

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,405 posts
  • Joined: 13-February 02
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Kings Langley

Posted 21 February 2013 - 01:17 PM

...I am more concerned about the bus usage forecast...that will be the killer of this event

#39 Paul Every

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,792 posts
  • Joined: 13-May 03
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 21 February 2013 - 03:13 PM

View PostColin, on 21 February 2013 - 01:17 PM, said:

...I am more concerned about the bus usage forecast...that will be the killer of this event

Well start your own thread then. Don't hijack this one. :angry:

Seriously, if runners aren't responding to the urgency of the bus situation, it might be another means to get the message out. I know only a certain percentage of 6Footers may be on CR, but if gets even a few of them discussing it on their training runs over the coming week and altering their plans, it can't do any harm.

Hope all is going well for you otherwise.

#40 halfwaydown

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,059 posts
  • Joined: 28-April 11
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 21 February 2013 - 08:02 PM

View PostPaul Every, on 21 February 2013 - 03:13 PM, said:

View PostColin, on 21 February 2013 - 01:17 PM, said:

...I am more concerned about the bus usage forecast...that will be the killer of this event

Well start your own thread then. Don't hijack this one. :angry:

Seriously, if runners aren't responding to the urgency of the bus situation, it might be another means to get the message out. I know only a certain percentage of 6Footers may be on CR, but if gets even a few of them discussing it on their training runs over the coming week and altering their plans, it can't do any harm.

Hope all is going well for you otherwise.
Paul's right.
Getting everyone on buses and off cars is critical.
This needs a campaign - ideally with celebrity backing....

Attached Files



#41 Evil

    veryCoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 154 posts
  • Joined: 29-November 07
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Wollongong

Posted 22 February 2013 - 08:24 AM

Brilliant pic - should be used in the next email

#42 Colin

    Still dreaming...

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,405 posts
  • Joined: 13-February 02
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Kings Langley

Posted 22 February 2013 - 08:42 AM

Posted Image


One of my favourite fillums...Andre Braugher (Homicide - Life on the Street) great actor finally back on telly with Last Resort, which I missed btw ....so a catch up to do there, Richard Belzer...directed by Spike Lee

Edited by Colin, 22 February 2013 - 08:44 AM.


#43 johnnyboyrun

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,176 posts
  • Joined: 27-November 08
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Vaucluse

Posted 24 February 2013 - 09:40 AM

we dont need any more big falls before race day!!! http://www.bom.gov.a...63076.plt.shtml

#44 Supersam1979

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,109 posts
  • Joined: 12-January 09
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Planet Earth

Posted 24 February 2013 - 10:05 AM

Has anyone been to the river this last weekend to have a look? 1m or just there over and seems to be flowing quite strongly from that chart. This would see some of the shorter competitors with it well over their waists.

Is there an official safety level? Sorry if all this was rehashed last year.

In my humble view it is sometimes not only the rainfall into the. River itself, but surely what is released into the network of rivers from oner dams that may be filling up.

Fingers crossed for a race day . Even a wet one is fine, but at least all the folks will be able to do their training justice.

Good luck in the taper all.


#45 Colin

    Still dreaming...

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,405 posts
  • Joined: 13-February 02
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Kings Langley

Posted 24 February 2013 - 11:27 AM

Hi guys, chill pill required it is two weeks to race and the catchment rainfall is no where like last year, no point going to river to have look every time it rains,it only matters what it is going to be on race weekend.

#46 langswm

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,125 posts
  • Joined: 19-November 02
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:birchgrove

Posted 24 February 2013 - 01:23 PM

Glad it wasn't yesterday though Col!

#47 Colin

    Still dreaming...

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,405 posts
  • Joined: 13-February 02
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Kings Langley

Posted 24 February 2013 - 03:25 PM

Would have been runnable yesterday Ma ! ;)

Rain doesn't stop the race.

#48 TheGull

    CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPip
  • 15 posts
  • Joined: 14-February 13
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 25 February 2013 - 11:31 AM

Colin,

FYI - Was up in the Mtns on the weekend for the Narrow Neck night run that got canned again .  Decided on the Sunday morning to at least walk Nellies Glen and a bit beyond and back.  As expected, water flowing down the track constantly from Nellies Glen and the small stream crossings certainly meant a lot more care taken to cross each one.  But of note was a land slide towards the end of Nellies that meant trees were down (small ones) and debris banked up all over the track.  Would envolve quite a few people together to lift and move and some good clearing.   I am sure NPWS are onto it !

Cheers.

#49 Colin

    Still dreaming...

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,405 posts
  • Joined: 13-February 02
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Kings Langley

Posted 25 February 2013 - 12:17 PM

View PostTheGull, on 25 February 2013 - 11:31 AM, said:

Colin,

FYI - Was up in the Mtns on the weekend for the Narrow Neck night run that got canned again .  Decided on the Sunday morning to at least walk Nellies Glen and a bit beyond and back.  As expected, water flowing down the track constantly from Nellies Glen and the small stream crossings certainly meant a lot more care taken to cross each one.  But of note was a land slide towards the end of Nellies that meant trees were down (small ones) and debris banked up all over the track.  Would envolve quite a few people together to lift and move and some good clearing.   I am sure NPWS are onto it !

Cheers.

RFS actually do a sweep before the race and clear track...wasn't planned for last week though, so different set of circumstances come race day

#50 halfwaydown

    1000-club gold-rated CoolRunner

  • Forum Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,059 posts
  • Joined: 28-April 11
  • Sex:Male
  • Location:Sydney

Posted 25 February 2013 - 01:58 PM

View PostSupersam1979, on 24 February 2013 - 10:05 AM, said:

Has anyone been to the river this last weekend to have a look? 1m or just there over and seems to be flowing quite strongly from that chart. This would see some of the shorter competitors with it well over their waists.
Sean, that link on #43 is at the power station some 40-50km up river.  There is no guage at the crossing - the closest one is Island Hill 1km downstream.  Levels at Island Hill are posted below - these are NOT the same as the crossing - and can be useful as guidance only as eg a 1metre rise in level as island hill might be less at the crossing which has quite a wide spread area if the river breaks the banks.
The amount of water in the River at 1am Sunday morning would appear to be similar to the same peak last year - it is however 1 week earlier than last year. It also looks (but its early yet) as though it is dropping much faster.
Last year the reservoirs upstream were all 100% full so all water run off was going over the spillways into the Cox.
And last year the river was on its way down but a further quantity of rain on 8th march topped up the system.
I wouldn't start worrying yet.

Attached Files