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Predictions for the 2016 Olympics


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#51 riffraff

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 08:39 PM

Twelve months or so ago Rudisha looked a bit washed up.

Patchy form and getting regularly beaten.

Peaked again just at the right time......great run and worthy winner.

And, pretty damn decent effort by Ella Nelson today in the 200 heats.

Nah no dive from Miller IMO......left ankle seemed to buckle a stride before the line.

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#52 JXT

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 10:11 PM

Agree about the dive not being a dive. Interesting to see the reaction out of the US on it, though.
Am also enjoying the conspiracy theory that the track is short.



#53 Colin

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 11:38 PM

Wellings just insinuated at Ayana's 'outside assistance'....wow, low blow

#54 speedmeup

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 07:05 AM

Rudisha peaked at the right time that's for sure.

No need to worry about the right lane in the 400 if you're running world records. Any lane will do.

#55 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 08:48 AM

Michelle Jenneke - the Anna Kournikova of athletics.

#56 Colin

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 01:55 PM

View Postsunburnt, on 17 August 2016 - 08:48 AM, said:

Michelle Jenneke - the Anna Kournikova of athletics.
Only difference is that Kournikova had more success on court.

Social media age of over hype.


Just in regard to Wellings' low blow comments at Ayana, I no nothing about Ayana's training or prep, but she looks like a real distance (5/10) athlete, great style that relates to how fast she is going and the 5km WR is still softer than the old 10km WR.

Vis a Vis my comments on Michael Johnson, again I do not assert that he used drugs,  but that he shouldn't have authority or respect on comments and insinuations on drug usage of other athletes when he went to great lengths (including burly security guards at a studio interview that terminated a the Ray Martin interview), to not comment on Marion Jones etc and systemic US drug use , when he (MJ) was still a athlete.
You had your chance back then MJ, don't now use your NBC status as chance to redeem yourself...

...and , in terms of style as I said above, he had absolutely the most awkward sprinting style that you would coach right out of any kid, that hasn't been seen before nor since, yet still held both the 200m and 400m WRs

#57 riffraff

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 03:04 PM

View PostColin, on 17 August 2016 - 01:55 PM, said:

View Postsunburnt, on 17 August 2016 - 08:48 AM, said:

Michelle Jenneke - the Anna Kournikova of athletics.
Only difference is that Kournikova had more success on court.

This.

MJ will never amount to anything.

#skeweredpriorities

Apologies if;

this had posted in some other thread

doesn't fit thread description

http://sportsscienti...ecords-fossils/

Edited by riffraff, 17 August 2016 - 03:01 PM.


#58 Colin

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 04:09 PM

Interesting read...and much to contemplate on for the intersex issues present now.

#59 Keno

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Posted 18 August 2016 - 01:08 AM

Follow up story on the German twins that finished the race holding hands.

http://www.news.com....d4224ec328d73c9

Some unhappy people feeling that they used the Olympics as a photo op. Not sure that the planned on getting to Rio for a holiday, but the photo does look a little like they are bucket list marathon runners.

#60 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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Posted 18 August 2016 - 08:53 AM

It looks like they took "It’s the participating that counts" quite literally.

Of course they could have been completely upstaged by the Luik triplets - https://www.theguard...on-rio-olympics but Liina was a DNF

#61 Colin

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Posted 18 August 2016 - 11:02 AM

If I hear Tamsyn saying 'cadence' again the TV will have a big hole in it...


Speaking of which, there is some handy split analysis of Van Niekerk's run, comparisons vs 2nd and 3rd place and against Johnson

Fastest at 50m , 6.0sec ( James 6.1, Merritt 6.1)
50-100m , ..4.7sec (4.7, 4.7)....his 100m PB is 9.98sec
Back straight 100m ,...9.8sec (9.8, 9.6)
200m,   .......20.5sec (20.6, 20.4)
200-300m , ................10.5sec (10.6, 10.8 )
300-350m , ................5.8sec (6.1, 6.1)
350-400m , ................6.2sec (6.5, 6.6)

His split progressions since last 2014 have been consistent

Johnson BTW never went under 21 sec for first 200m

OK, Cadence and stride....V Niekerk's stride starts off at 2.34m, then peaks at 2.64 (back straight) , dropping back to 2,34 (bend and last 100m).
Cadence goes from 240 down to 210 in last 100m

Incidently, his peak stride in 100PB is 2.70m , same as Bolt despite being 1.83m vs 1.95 of Bolt.

Given his consistent splits in different races, the lane 8 didn't bother him as much , possibly only psychologically.

cheers

Edited by Colin, 18 August 2016 - 11:03 AM.


#62 speedmeup

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Posted 18 August 2016 - 11:33 AM

Maybe it helped psychologically - if you don't know where your opponents are you give it everything just in case.

I wonder if mythbusters could measure energy consumption of 8 battery toys in each lane of the 400. I reckon lane 8 would use the least battery power due to the wider angle of the bend.

#63 Colin

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Posted 18 August 2016 - 11:41 AM

View Postspeedmeup, on 18 August 2016 - 11:33 AM, said:

Maybe it helped psychologically - if you don't know where your opponents are you give it everything just in case.

I wonder if mythbusters could measure energy consumption of 8 battery toys in each lane of the 400. I reckon lane 8 would use the least battery power due to the wider angle of the bend.

Geepers speedmeup, we already know that it is 'easier' from a energy output point of view, a straighter run is better, but we also do know that psychologically and from a racing perspective the runners want to be in the middle lanes which is a compromise between a steeper curve and being able to match your pace against others.

TTs on your own (essentially lane 8 front running) are way more difficult than TTs in a race, even a Park Run or your normal weekly club TT. We even know that, that is why we choose to do TTs with a race group.

If it wasn't so then we could have each person running a separate lane 8 TT...not going to happen.

Will the best qualifiers now choose lane 8 instead? Not going to happen either.

cheers

#64 speedmeup

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Posted 18 August 2016 - 12:30 PM

Maybe more world records would be broken if the fastest athletes had the option of running from lane 8.

#65 Colin

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Posted 18 August 2016 - 05:50 PM

View Postspeedmeup, on 18 August 2016 - 12:30 PM, said:

Maybe more world records would be broken if the fastest athletes had the option of running from lane 8.

I believe they do have that option already. Or they can just slow down in 2nd place in SF. However, with this 'experiment on one', I doubt anyone will...fact is that we know Lane 1 is bad (because of curve) and we know Lane 8 is straightest. But in a race, it is advantageous to 'see' how fast your closest rivals are going, so they usually settle for 4.

That said, I do not know why Wayde was 'given' Lane 8. There were three SF, 1st and 2nd in each plus next fastest 2 go through.

James, Taplin and Cedenio were 1st...they got (took) 6, 4 and 3
Merritt, Hudson-Smith and Van Niekerk were 2nd...Merritt was fastest ...got lane 5, but Van Niekerk was next fastest, yet got lane 8, Hudson Smith lane 7, then fastest auto qual Sibanda got 1, Khamis 2

Not sure what's going on, will check

edit...Draw is as follows.

Top 4, random allocation from 3-6
Bottom 4, random 1,2,7,8

So, they cannot 'choose' 8

Edited by Colin, 18 August 2016 - 05:58 PM.


#66 speedmeup

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Posted 18 August 2016 - 07:23 PM

Wayde would have won from any lane he had the goods. Just interesting to know what input (albeit very slight) to his WR time from the lane 8. We'll never know. Perhaps Bolt could break 19 from lane 8 .. (will probably do it from lane 4/5/6 anyway) lets hope so.. He's in good shape.

#67 barramundiboy

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Posted 20 August 2016 - 11:17 AM

Jarad Talent.
Gutsiest Aussie I've seen in a while.

#68 redbackrun

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Posted 23 August 2016 - 07:31 AM

I sat down last night to watch the men's marathon that I had recorded. Thanks to channel 7 I missed the last 20mins due to them switching the live feed to their 7two channel. They played the boomers bronze medal match instead. Understandable but annoying.

Edited by redbackrun, 23 August 2016 - 07:31 AM.


#69 undercover brother

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Posted 23 August 2016 - 01:50 PM

that would be ok if the boomers had won.

#70 Colin

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Posted 24 August 2016 - 03:14 PM

View Postredbackrun, on 23 August 2016 - 07:31 AM, said:

I sat down last night to watch the men's marathon that I had recorded. Thanks to channel 7 I missed the last 20mins due to them switching the live feed to their 7two channel. They played the boomers bronze medal match instead. Understandable but annoying.

That's how  missed the men's steeple.

The annoying part of marathon coverage was the banal commentary by Bruce, Tamsyn and Dave Culbert...that font of marathon knowledge :-(

#71 JXT

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Posted 24 August 2016 - 03:37 PM

It's pretty bad when Bruce was far and away the best of the trio.

#72 barramundiboy

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Posted 24 August 2016 - 05:12 PM

Missed the last few
Days due to Sunshine coast Shepp marathon double. Sounds like i didnt miss much in vivid commentary.
Enjoyed listening to the birds on the riverbank more.
Enjoy.

#73 Colin

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Posted 25 August 2016 - 10:45 PM

However...as a wrap up...

the 1,500 was a classic 'race', don't worry about the slow time, that's racing and the smartest wins...50 sec last lap palys to your strengths and Centro controlled it all the way, even though he said that was 'forced'.

Marathon showed the class of Kipchoge...makes me wonder how the late Wanjiru and he would have raced...Kipchoge is a fast runner and likes to be 'paced' to fast time...the slow start suited that, Wanjiru was the ultimate bulldog racer

400 was still the best track event, the long standing WR against the best 400m racers around, and by a very humble guy.

Bolt looked tired in final...van Niekerk missed a medal by not opting for 200m as well.

Mo Farah...best 5/10 racer ever...not the fastest, the best racer

Women's 800m final...mmmhh...no opinion, but the jury is still out on this.

Probably a few others forgotten

#74 riffraff

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Posted 26 August 2016 - 08:07 AM

View PostColin, on 25 August 2016 - 10:45 PM, said:

However...as a wrap up...

the 1,500 was a classic 'race', don't worry about the slow time, that's racing and the smartest wins...50 sec last lap palys to your strengths and Centro controlled it all the way, even though he said that was 'forced'.

Marathon showed the class of Kipchoge...makes me wonder how the late Wanjiru and he would have raced...Kipchoge is a fast runner and likes to be 'paced' to fast time...the slow start suited that, Wanjiru was the ultimate bulldog racer

400 was still the best track event, the long standing WR against the best 400m racers around, and by a very humble guy.

Bolt looked tired in final...van Niekerk missed a medal by not opting for 200m as well.

Mo Farah...best 5/10 racer ever...not the fastest, the best racer

Women's 800m final...mmmhh...no opinion, but the jury is still out on this.

Probably a few others forgotten

The jury will remain out until he/she hangs up his/her spikes.

A quick google of Semenya's 400 and 1500 times would suggest he/she could become the dominant 'female' racer of his/her era.

IAAF's hands tied while this cloud hangs over women's track.



#75 crowpower

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Posted 26 August 2016 - 10:56 AM

I didn't enjoy the men's marathon coverage as much as the female marathon's. At times it seemed like it was an advertisement program with an occasional break to show the marathon. I still liked the commentary team, but I must admit I cringed when this gem came from Tamsyn Lewis at 1:26 into the event: "If you are a distance runner and I'm sure there's plenty of distance runners at home watching on ...".   Really Tamsyn!  :Doh:

I hope you still have your TV Colin. I only heard her say "cadence" once after you mentioned that. But I felt the same after hearing "in the mix" and the woeful "argy bargy" ad infinitum. The latter sounded good coming from Frankie Howerd!

#76 Colin

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Posted 26 August 2016 - 09:02 PM

View Postriffraff, on 26 August 2016 - 08:07 AM, said:

The jury will remain out until he/she hangs up his/her spikes.

A quick google of Semenya's 400 and 1500 times would suggest he/she could become the dominant 'female' racer of his/her era.

IAAF's hands tied while this cloud hangs over women's track.

Bit of a difficult issue to discuss, especially on FB, where I suspect the 'pro transgender' can say everything and anyone with a reasonable even scientific opinion is labelled 'anti' something'

The issue is that it could be tip of iceberg, Semenya (and others that may face the same) is unfortunate to be born without female reproductive organs, undescended testes with extremely high testosterone (unfairly high for females). Not a gender issue but a sex issue, and as such, whether by nature of her upbringing as girl or what she 'chose' female 'sex' and was then given hormone treatment (continuous). The Indian athlete's case to CAS forced IAAF/OOC decision, but technically the spectrum of testosterone and 'manly' attributes can be as wide as you want.
Where does that leave those with female level attributes and hormones.

Hypothetically, all power and endurance events could be dominated by similar athletes.

Note , I have not indicated a bias either way, just pointing out the possible issues

#77 crowpower

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Posted 26 August 2016 - 10:31 PM

The men's marathon was shown on TV for a total of 1 hour 26 minutes at the point where the winner crossed the line in 2:08:44.

The third US runner to finish, Mebrahtom Keflezighi, in 2:16:46 slipped over right on the finish line and did a few pushups. Watch for copycats all over the world from now on. Perhaps this will become the "Keflezighi Kaper"!

#78 Davo

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Posted 28 August 2016 - 02:17 PM

View Postcrowpower, on 26 August 2016 - 10:56 AM, said:

  I cringed when this gem came from Tamsyn Lewis at 1:26 into the event: "If you are a distance runner and I'm sure there's plenty of distance runners at home watching on ...".   Really Tamsyn!  :Doh:

What's wrong with that? It's a perfectly reasonable observation.

#79 crowpower

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Posted 28 August 2016 - 06:02 PM

View PostDavo, on 28 August 2016 - 02:17 PM, said:

View Postcrowpower, on 26 August 2016 - 10:56 AM, said:

  I cringed when this gem came from Tamsyn Lewis at 1:26 into the event: "If you are a distance runner and I'm sure there's plenty of distance runners at home watching on ...".   Really Tamsyn!  :Doh:

What's wrong with that? It's a perfectly reasonable observation.

Well you wouldn't expect a footy commentator at the Grand Final to say "I'm sure there are plenty of football fans watching on ... ".

Seeing as it's a distance race the primary viewing audience will be distance runners. What Lewis said would be appliable to a secondary audience, such as cyclists for example. She was stating the bleeding obvious and will no doubt wince if she watches a replay of it.

#80 undercover brother

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Posted 28 August 2016 - 06:49 PM

naaaah most of the people watching would've been fat c&nts sitting at home eating chips on the couch.

Edited by undercover brother, 28 August 2016 - 06:49 PM.


#81 _ausrunning

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Posted 28 August 2016 - 09:08 PM

Silver medalist Feyisa Lelisa https://www.gofundme.com/2kykuuxs

My prediction is they'll catch more dopes at Rio than London therefore Putin has strategically outplayed Coe.

#82 Davo

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Posted 28 August 2016 - 10:08 PM

View Postcrowpower, on 28 August 2016 - 06:02 PM, said:

View PostDavo, on 28 August 2016 - 02:17 PM, said:

View Postcrowpower, on 26 August 2016 - 10:56 AM, said:

  I cringed when this gem came from Tamsyn Lewis at 1:26 into the event: "If you are a distance runner and I'm sure there's plenty of distance runners at home watching on ...".   Really Tamsyn!  :Doh:

What's wrong with that? It's a perfectly reasonable observation.

Well you wouldn't expect a footy commentator at the Grand Final to say "I'm sure there are plenty of football fans watching on ... ".

Seeing as it's a distance race the primary viewing audience will be distance runners. What Lewis said would be appliable to a secondary audience, such as cyclists for example. She was stating the bleeding obvious and will no doubt wince if she watches a replay of it.

Yes, but she said "I'm sure....." So she knew what she was saying. No problem as far as I'm concerned. I'm sure that the majority of posters on this forum are distance runners. Get it?

#83 crowpower

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Posted 29 August 2016 - 04:16 PM

We'll have to agree to disagree on that one Davo. I don't want to get into a discussion about the semantics of it all.

#84 dadagain

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Posted 29 August 2016 - 05:25 PM

Fwiw - I don't see a problem either. The majority of Olympic coverage is for 'the masses' - not aficionados. So pointing out that many distance runners would be watching seems reasonable to me.

Similarly saying, " I'm sure there are a few synchro swimmers out there watching this" would not be out of line in that coverage despite the majority of viewers not being familiar with the finer details at all!

#85 Davo

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Posted 29 August 2016 - 05:28 PM

View Postcrowpower, on 29 August 2016 - 04:16 PM, said:

We'll have to agree to disagree on that one Davo. I don't want to get into a discussion about the semantics of it all.

Yep, no problem, Crowpower. No malice intended. Cheers, Davo.




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