291 replies to this topic

[MountainMan]

arrtgrrl, on 08 March 2012 - 08:39 AM, said:

If the weather that is on the coast here at the moment is heading to the mountains.. i would not be hopeful as it has been very heavy rain

I am no meteorologist but it seems to be headed north and mostly east of the ranges to me...

Edited by MountainMan, 08 March 2012 - 09:01 AM.

[thomo]

MountainMan, on 08 March 2012 - 08:08 AM, said:

I haven't had any emails since I registered. If there is an email update can they post it on here somewhere? Or maybe it could go on the 6ft Website?

Thanks,

Check your spam email box then.

I have had no problems getting emails in my two nominated email addresses

Photo posted by mate on FB of our local creek. Wow!

Edited by thomo, 08 March 2012 - 09:05 AM.

[MountainMan]

thomo, on 08 March 2012 - 09:03 AM, said:

MountainMan, on 08 March 2012 - 08:08 AM, said:

I haven't had any emails since I registered. If there is an email update can they post it on here somewhere? Or maybe it could go on the 6ft Website?

Thanks,

Check your spam email box then.

I did. Thanks for the tip though.

I will just monitor the FB page from now on.

[nickpb]

The rivers back up to where it was a couple of days ago.  Not good I'm sorry to say.

[flyingemu]

halfwaydown, on 07 March 2012 - 07:51 AM, said:

The graph at Island Hill (1km down from 6ft crossing).

Optomistic Summary: Slow but Steady
Pessamistic Summary: Steady but Slow


BTW: I should add - the weather forecast for Saturday looks absolutely perfect.

Looks worse now. Updated at 9am and it's gone up about a foot over night.

[Fox]

Fox, on 28 February 2012 - 04:34 PM, said:

Ponkey, on 28 February 2012 - 04:13 PM, said:

This should lift the river somewhat in the coming days ! http://www.bom.gov.a...pl?IDN38503.txt

The Weather Channel says the "weather event" could last 8 days.

8 days is up, skies clearing over the course, rain looks finished.  The forecasters got a bit of a bagging on this thread.  Maybe we should give them a bit of credit for getting it right.  They are usually pretty good, up to a week or so, anyway.  And then we can believe the positive forecast from now on.

[Nova]

Touch and go...rain clearing later today and mostly sunny tomorrow and Saturday.

River has not risen too much but it is not going down.  The rain can't clear quick enough for my liking.  

If Colin goes to the river crossing late in the afternoon tomorrow it hopefully will be about 0.7m and falling.

http://www.bom.gov.a...63000.plt.shtml

Edited by Nova, 08 March 2012 - 09:55 AM.

[Colin]

Fox, on 08 March 2012 - 09:44 AM, said:

[ The forecasters got a bit of a bagging on this thread.  Maybe we should give them a bit of credit for getting it right.  They are usually pretty good, up to a week or so, anyway.  And then we can believe the positive forecast from now on.

It's all because Paul Every didn't want to be told a month in advance that he will need an umbrella on Thursday 8th

[nickpb]

Fox, on 08 March 2012 - 09:44 AM, said:

Fox, on 28 February 2012 - 04:34 PM, said:

Ponkey, on 28 February 2012 - 04:13 PM, said:

This should lift the river somewhat in the coming days ! http://www.bom.gov.a...pl?IDN38503.txt

The Weather Channel says the "weather event" could last 8 days.

8 days is up, skies clearing over the course, rain looks finished.  The forecasters got a bit of a bagging on this thread.  Maybe we should give them a bit of credit for getting it right.  They are usually pretty good, up to a week or so, anyway.  And then we can believe the positive forecast from now on.

They have a better record than economists anyway.

[Paul Every]

Colin, on 08 March 2012 - 09:59 AM, said:

Fox, on 08 March 2012 - 09:44 AM, said:

[ The forecasters got a bit of a bagging on this thread.  Maybe we should give them a bit of credit for getting it right.  They are usually pretty good, up to a week or so, anyway.  And then we can believe the positive forecast from now on.

It's all because Paul Every didn't want to be told a month in advance that he will need an umbrella on Thursday 8th

Unfortunately I need way more than an umbrella to keep me dry while working outdoors today.

[nickpb]

Paul Every, on 11 February 2012 - 10:14 AM, said:

I am reassured to know now, that I should take my umbrella to work on 8th Thursday March.

You're in the wrong profession.  Become a weather forecaster.  

[johnnyboyrun]

It will be a miracle...But fingers crossed. Rain needs to stop falling now and Lake Lyell had stop spilling. But if Colin had doubts about river crossing last night.......

[Rico]

How much of that $2.20 action did you collect?

[johnnyboyrun]

A fair bit i would say...

New odds are out:

No race $1.05
Race   $32.00

Edited by johnnyboyrun, 08 March 2012 - 10:24 AM.

[halfwaydown]

Some Perspective.

All data taken from Cox@ Island Hill (1km down from 6ft crossing) Gauge was put in in 1981:

On Saturday 3rd March 2012 at 1am the gauge peaked at 2.525m - a height the river hadn't achieved in 13 years.
The river has gone higher on only 5 occasions since the records started - Aug 1986; Aug 1990, Aug 1998; May&Jun 1988.
August would clearly be a bad time to organise an annual race.  March, traditionally the river runs low.

On the hopeful - the Cox appears to drain quickly judging by the steepness of the peaks/troughs - however with 2 of the 3 up-stream dams at 100% capacity and everywhere already sodden - the catchment area is effectively extended with rain falling/having fallen further upstream finding its way down, over the dam wall and into our little crossing.

BTW - The highest gauge recording was an incredible 4.675m on 2/8/1990 - take the Ultra168 video posted earlier and think double the river volume. Now that would be something to see and hear (but at a safe distance and not on race weekend).

Edited by halfwaydown, 08 March 2012 - 10:40 AM.

[Colin]

johnnyboyrun, on 08 March 2012 - 10:24 AM, said:

A fair bit i would say...

New odds are out:

No race $1.05
Race   $32.00

When driving back from mountains last night I was telling my 'bookie' Dave to plunge $10,000 on the $1.70

Betting is being closed now.

[Wokka]

Disappointing to have to cancel but totally reasonable and justified. It was solid rain all night in th mountains.

As usual a great big thanks to Colin, the RFS and all the others involved in organising. I imagine there will be no one more disappointed than Colin after all the hardwork and grief that comes with organising this event. Thanks and here's looking at next year.

Who's up for a Fatass run to the Cox's and back - 7am at explorers tree ?

[Steggles]

Feeling sad very disappointed but very pleased with how Colin kept us all informed on what was happening day by day and I know the right decision was definitely made for the safety of everyone.. Thank you Colin and all other volunteers for their efforts in trying to get this race going, it goes well noticed..
I'll be there with everyone sitting by the computer at entry time for next years run now, so see you all there if our browsers work fast enough!!  Cheers Colin and Team x

P.S. Can I cry now,  

[David C]

Colin, on 08 March 2012 - 09:59 AM, said:

Fox, on 08 March 2012 - 09:44 AM, said:

[ The forecasters got a bit of a bagging on this thread.  Maybe we should give them a bit of credit for getting it right.  They are usually pretty good, up to a week or so, anyway.  And then we can believe the positive forecast from now on.

It's all because Paul Every didn't want to be told a month in advance that he will need an umbrella on Thursday 8th

Good point - if it is not on then Paul Every (not the weather) is to blame!  Cheers,

[BJ43]

I'll be at the explorers tree at 7am....I'm still keen to have a beer at caves house whether I have to swim across the river or use the bridge....I might not get another chance to say I completed the 6ft track

[JustinHD]

Any possibility of a postponement date?

[langswm]

JustinHD, on 08 March 2012 - 12:45 PM, said:

Any possibility of a postponement date?

Yep....9 March 2013

[halfwaydown]

BJ43, on 08 March 2012 - 12:25 PM, said:

I'll be at the explorers tree at 7am....I'm still keen to have a beer at caves house whether I have to swim across the river or use the bridge....I might not get another chance to say I completed the 6ft track

USE THE BRIDGE.

[BJ43]

Anybody else using the bridge with me?

[Financeman]

Send out the running shirt in the next couple of months.. I don't want a refund... The RFS can have the cash if there is a surplus... or Colin a beer...

[straygaijin]

BJ43, on 08 March 2012 - 01:10 PM, said:

Anybody else using the bridge with me?

Given that one of the reasons for the cancellation is the condition of the track between Little River and Deviation, you may not get to the Caves.

Quote

Jack and Frank will still be traversing the rest of the course to Deviation, but with further deterioration since yesterday this is unlikely to change things. It particular the slippage just past Little River has made that impassable to the RFS trucks and generally they will not put their personnel at risk on a track that is not safe to drive through.
Without access to that part of the track, as per last night's email, the race just cannot go ahead with our commitments to safety.

whatever you do,don't get into difficulty and require assistance, as Colin said, it might make things difficult for the race in the future.

[Animal]

Not sure if this has been covered or not but why cannot there be a day within the next month for six foot 2012 to go ahead?

I am massively disappointed that the race can't go on due to all the issues involved but there is a bloody good chance i will be doing the Mt Solitary loop on saturday instead as haven't done it before. Should be a big group of us, will post starting time & place tomorrow.

Mt Hotham ultra cancelled at half way
Six foot cancelled
What will be cancelled next? These things usually come in 3's, well Ironman NZ last weekend was cancelled but they put on half ironman instead the following day so that doesn't count.

Time to re-think strategy for next race, might have to be Canberra marathon as it should not be cancelled

[howcanhegosofast]

Don't forgot Glenbrook was canned as well

[Jogger]

Quote

why cannot there be a day within the next month for six foot 2012 to go ahead?

Arguably 6mths ago a backup date could have been agreed, but it wasn't.
To coordinate with the 15+ separate fire brigades on a new date, and for the timing people etc is hard yakka and might take a month to agree a new date.
By the sounds of it, Black Range Rd (managed by the local council) is totally impassable to vehicles and this could take months to fix (!?)

[halfwaydown]

howcanhegosofast, on 08 March 2012 - 03:36 PM, said:

Don't forgot Glenbrook was canned as well

Don't forgot Glenbrook was canned as well
Twice.

[Road]

Sorry to hear of the cancellation and know that all runners would be equally disappointed.

Colin and co must be as disappointed if not more for all their hard work amounting to nothing.

Thanks Colin and co for all your efforts.

Planning to head out for a stay at the caves as planned.

I've heard plenty talking of a fat ass from Katoomba.

Is a 20 -22 km run away from the caves feasible with the condition of the track, without the need to run through private property.

Good running to all.

[howcanhegosofast]

halfwaydown, on 08 March 2012 - 03:42 PM, said:

howcanhegosofast, on 08 March 2012 - 03:36 PM, said:

Don't forgot Glenbrook was canned as well

Don't forgot Glenbrook was canned as well
Twice.

Time to stop counting now. Please no more weather threads. Please !

On second thoughts, why don't we start a 2012 Canberra marathon weather forecast thread just to keep in practice and get it all out there...

[halfwaydown]

Just confirming 6 ft information email about river.
Cox River @ island Hill (1km down from crossing) was up at 2am this morning to the same level it had been 2am on Tuesday morning.
2 days of steady river dropping down the drain with yesterday's wet one.

Attached Files

•  Cox River Island Hil 9th March 2012.JPG   117.28K   54 downloads

[Colin]

Jogger, on 08 March 2012 - 03:37 PM, said:

Quote

why cannot there be a day within the next month for six foot 2012 to go ahead?

Arguably 6mths ago a backup date could have been agreed, but it wasn't.
To coordinate with the 15+ separate fire brigades on a new date, and for the timing people etc is hard yakka and might take a month to agree a new date.
By the sounds of it, Black Range Rd (managed by the local council) is totally impassable to vehicles and this could take months to fix (!?)

About 6 weeks ago when the forecast looked grim I did try to get an alternative date. There are closer to 30 separate brigades which have to be free on another weekend- 18 drink stations, car park, start, finish etc etc They always know that the second saturday in March is 6ft, so nothing planned on that day, but other weekends are various training exercises etc and of course most of these guys are public citizens- from fork lift drivers to doctors- so they all have to be free. Really hard to get another free date in the calendar in the same few months.
Unless you make 6Ft self supported to river with mandatory gear (perhaps include some floaties and life jackets ) checkpoint then self supported to Pluvi and so on , then you don't need all that support - and can charge $330 too I suppose.

[Nova]

The river is below 0.5 meters is anyone is interested : p

http://www.bom.gov.a...63000.plt.shtml

[undercover brother]

yeah but whats the flow rate?

[halfwaydown]

undercover brother, on 14 March 2012 - 04:15 PM, said:

yeah but whats the flow rate?

65.28 Megalitres per hour at 8am this morning
compared with
147.9 Megalitres per hour at 8am on morning of 2012 'race'.
compared with
75.04 Megalitres per hour at 8am on morning of 1987 race*
compared with
719.03 Megalitres per hour at 3am on 3/03/2012 when it was peaking just before the Ultra168 team shot their video
compared with
5371.99 Megalitres per hour at 3pm on 2/08/1990


*Previous recorded high on race day - it dropped to just below this level on 13/3/2012 at noon.

Edited by halfwaydown, 14 March 2012 - 05:14 PM.

[Colin]

halfwaydown, on 14 March 2012 - 05:00 PM, said:

undercover brother, on 14 March 2012 - 04:15 PM, said:

yeah but whats the flow rate?

65.28 Megalitres per hour at 8am this morning
compared with
147.9 Megalitres per hour at 8am on morning of 2012 'race'.
compared with
75.04 Megalitres per hour at 8am on morning of 1987 race*
compared with
719.03 Megalitres per hour at 3am on 3/03/2012 when it was peaking just before the Ultra168 team shot their video
compared with
5371.99 Megalitres per hour at 3pm on 2/08/1990

*Previous recorded high on race day - it dropped to just below this level on 13/3/2012 at noon.

I can report now  that halfwaydown privately sent me that info of the other levels before the race - Wednesday morning - he didn't want to  alarm people.  I called 'Big Chris' one of race pioneers and RD before Kevin and he was actually sweeper in 1987 (previous race high). He explained to me with vivid memory that it was quite a slow process with a system of ropes from tree to tree upstream where rock hopping usually is but they eventually got all over. Remember only 111 runners and probably a more hardy type too. According to an '87 runner it was difficult to have more than one person tugging on a rope and that last wednesday's flow and level according to him was much worse.

I went to the river late afternoon and in my opinion it wasn't safely crossable by all, but pessimistically hopeful with the trend down wards that we could devise a similar system by Friday with the Cox RFS team.
Alas the overnight torrential rain made the Friday trip redundant and the decision quite easy, albeit very hard to accept.

Quite a few things were happenning in the background of the decision process- thanks Michael for your input.

Edited by Colin, 14 March 2012 - 05:35 PM.

[Jogger]

oh well at least we are not as bad off as these guys at the music festival:
http://www.smh.com.a...0316-1va5g.html

Quote

The promoter of a three-day music festival cancelled due to floods says he cannot afford to refund punters.

Playground Weekender, a camping and music festival at Wisemans Ferry, was cancelled with only 36 hours' notice when severe flood warnings were issued for the Hawkesbury River on March 1 and residents were evacuated.

Last night, the promoter, English-born Andy Rigby, said none of the $1 million spent on stages, festivals, security and international and local bands could be recouped and therefore he had no money to give back to those who had bought tickets.

Advertisement: Story continues below

"If I had $20 left to pay back someone's ticket, then I would," he said. "We haven't tried to do anything deceitful, honestly. We've been caught out by a natural disaster."

More than 3000 people were expected to attend the festival and tickets cost about $200.

Mr Rigby conceded that he should have bought insurance against the festival being forcibly cancelled due to a natural disaster.

[Bellthorpe]

Quote

Mr Rigby conceded that he should have bought insurance against the festival being forcibly cancelled due to a natural disaster.

That was big of him.

[David C]

Colin, on 09 March 2012 - 08:42 AM, said:

Unless you make 6Ft self supported to river with mandatory gear (perhaps include some floaties and life jackets ) checkpoint then self supported to Pluvi and so on , then you don't need all that support - and can charge $330 too I suppose.

OK - I'm in - when is it on - I might be the only one - but at least I could then say that I won it!    ... and I would have a 2012 finishing medal to prove it.

[JustinHD]

We ran the track yesterday.  Although Kelpie Point showed 0.49m, it was swimming across the Coxs River holding onto the safety rope with a strong current. (Whoever placed the rope there, THANK YOU!).  Heavy rain Sat night meant the whole track was soft and slow, but perfect weather.  Thanks to the Guide's Office at J.C. for storing gear for us to change into before the bus ride back.