291 replies to this topic

[Coogee1979M]

johnnyboyrun, on 06 March 2012 - 08:34 AM, said:

I think if the TAB were to frame a market for it it would be something like

$1.70 no race
$2.20 race

I've updated my Excel model to reflect the hysteria over the river level and flow rate on the morning of Saturday 3rd, the (predictable) subsequent decline in river level in the 72 hours hence, the moderate amount of rain expected on Wednesday and Thursday, Runhard's correction regarding the error in cell c5, Bob Carr's appointment as Foreign Minister and David Warner's brilliant innings on Sunday. The model is still only giving a 4.13% chance of cancellation.So I'll take the $2.20 race option.  Then again, I could be wrong.

[Nova]

Unless the weather report is incorrect and we end up with 40mm of rain over the 48 hours prior to the race that $2.20 is a good bet.  In fact if someone is willing to run down to the river and take a quick snapshot we may be able to make some good money here.

[johnnyboyrun]

Nova, on 06 March 2012 - 09:46 AM, said:

Unless the weather report is incorrect and we end up with 40mm of rain over the 48 hours prior to the race that $2.20 is a good bet.  In fact if someone is willing to run down to the river and take a quick snapshot we may be able to make some good money here.

Correct me if im wrong but the forecast is not the main worry now its the flow into the cox's river from Lyell Lake Spillway ?

[greenpointgeckos]

I think if the TAB were to frame a market for it it would be something like

$1.70 no race
$2.20 race


I would  be a bit reluctant to take a large bet from a guy name Colin!!

[runhard]

johnnyboyrun, on 06 March 2012 - 09:59 AM, said:

Correct me if im wrong ... from Lyell Lake Spillway ?

OK,  Isnt it referred to as Lake Lyell?   Correct me if I am wrong

[johnnyboyrun]

runhard, on 06 March 2012 - 10:14 AM, said:

johnnyboyrun, on 06 March 2012 - 09:59 AM, said:

Correct me if im wrong ... from Lyell Lake Spillway ?

OK,  Isnt it referred to as Lake Lyell?   Correct me if I am wrong

Yes, i do stand corrected

[Nova]

johnnyboyrun, on 06 March 2012 - 09:59 AM, said:

Nova, on 06 March 2012 - 09:46 AM, said:

Unless the weather report is incorrect and we end up with 40mm of rain over the 48 hours prior to the race that $2.20 is a good bet.  In fact if someone is willing to run down to the river and take a quick snapshot we may be able to make some good money here.

Correct me if im wrong but the forecast is not the main worry now its the flow into the cox's river from Lyell Lake Spillway ?

Oh that minor problem.  Colin will fix that when he is doing his observation of the course tomorrow.  

[Colin]

Nova, on 06 March 2012 - 10:33 AM, said:

johnnyboyrun, on 06 March 2012 - 09:59 AM, said:

Correct me if im wrong but the forecast is not the main worry now its the flow into the cox's river from Lyell Lake Spillway ?

Oh that minor problem.  Colin will fix that when he is doing his observation of the course tomorrow.  

Oh, that little problem? Already have the biggest monkey wrench packed.

[halfwaydown]

sammo72, on 05 March 2012 - 09:16 PM, said:

really hoping the race goes ahead, but you need to stop the water coming over the spillway at Lake Lyell.

Sammo, You need to get the level of that damn Dam down FAST!
You gotta increase your water use.
Try anything - double showers, wash the car, water the lawn, boil some potatoes, flush the toilet after use*.
We're relying on you!  

*He's from the country, after all.

[vtrbic]

halfwaydown, on 06 March 2012 - 12:08 PM, said:

sammo72, on 05 March 2012 - 09:16 PM, said:

really hoping the race goes ahead, but you need to stop the water coming over the spillway at Lake Lyell.

Sammo, You need to get the level of that damn Dam down FAST!
You gotta increase your water use.
Try anything - double showers, wash the car, water the lawn, boil some potatoes, flush the toilet after use*.
We're relying on you!  

*He's from the country, after all.

You'd think we'd qualify for a water price reduction wouldn't you?

[Colin]

vtrbic, on 06 March 2012 - 12:15 PM, said:

halfwaydown, on 06 March 2012 - 12:08 PM, said:

Sammo, You need to get the level of that damn Dam down FAST!
You gotta increase your water use.
Try anything - double showers, wash the car, water the lawn, boil some potatoes, flush the toilet after use*.
We're relying on you!  

*He's from the country, after all.

You'd think we'd qualify for a water price reduction wouldn't you?

...but who's going to pay for the desalination plant.

btw, bloke at Delta Elect (environmental) told me that the spill is not 'controlled' at moment but just natural overflow. Best place to look at that overflow is the 'Cox's @ lithgow' which is 3km down.

[johnnyboyrun]

Colin, on 06 March 2012 - 12:19 PM, said:

vtrbic, on 06 March 2012 - 12:15 PM, said:

halfwaydown, on 06 March 2012 - 12:08 PM, said:

Sammo, You need to get the level of that damn Dam down FAST!
You gotta increase your water use.
Try anything - double showers, wash the car, water the lawn, boil some potatoes, flush the toilet after use*.
We're relying on you!  

*He's from the country, after all.

You'd think we'd qualify for a water price reduction wouldn't you?

...but who's going to pay for the desalination plant.

btw, bloke at Delta Elect (environmental) told me that the spill is not 'controlled' at moment but just natural overflow. Best place to look at that overflow is the 'Cox's @ lithgow' which is 3km down.

http://waterinfo.nsw...outhcoast.shtml

[johnnyboyrun]

weather forecast has changed, and not for the better... Piss off rain!!!!

[steakman]

johnnyboyrun, on 06 March 2012 - 04:32 PM, said:

weather forecast has changed, and not for the better... Piss off rain!!!!

I would have thought the weather looks better? Plenty of time for the river level to drop

Weds - Showers
Thursday - Showers easing
Friday - Possible shower
Saturday - 6 Foot Awesomeness!

[Steggles]

Just lurking around looking and praying   that river goes enough for us all to run our race on Saturday. I have packed and I'll be on my way there Friday morning bright and early for a race or for a run on the day... I'm with Johnnyboyrun, Piss off rain we don't need you right now!!

[Nova]

My weather man has been predicting a bit of rain on Wednesday and showers after that.  Lets hope the rain is less than 20mm.  No big downpours and we may be ok.

It just may give a new meaning to wave one...

[Colin]

Hopefully I will have time tomorrow afternoon to head up early before the volunteers briefing and have a look at the river first hand, will take some pics.

Won't be home before 10 or 11pm so don't be concerned if you don't hear anything, but there won't be a decision of course.

Edited by Colin, 06 March 2012 - 09:09 PM.

[Louie de Fly]

greenpointgeckos, on 06 March 2012 - 10:05 AM, said:

I think if the TAB were to frame a market for it it would be something like

$1.70 no race
$2.20 race


I would  be a bit reluctant to take a large bet from a guy name Colin!!

Sporting bet prices are

$3,50 no race
$1.10 race

All the best
Lou

[superflake]

Water flow looking good. Kelpie Point is now under 1m. http://www.bom.gov.a...63000.plt.shtml

Down to 0.9m now. Once it gets to 0.5m that is waist high at the Cox's crossing and a normal level. Hopefully the rain due in Sydney today won't make it to the mountains.

[halfwaydown]

The graph at Island Hill (1km down from 6ft crossing).

Optomistic Summary: Slow but Steady
Pessamistic Summary: Steady but Slow


BTW: I should add - the weather forecast for Saturday looks absolutely perfect.

Attached Files

•  Cox River Island Hil 7th March 2012 PM.JPG   125.33K   110 downloads

Edited by halfwaydown, 07 March 2012 - 08:05 AM.

[Caitiefullstop]

The stats for Katoomba since the start of march - note the lessening of rain http://www.bom.gov.a...68.201203.shtml

[johnnyboyrun]

I think today is the most important day as there is a bit of rain forecast, its just a matter if falls are heavy over that way. Looking at the radar it may be touch and go

Probably the most important factor on the river now is if Lake Lyell is still overflowing. Anybody know?

Latest odds from TAB are:

Race on $1.50
Race off $ 2.90
'

[Colin]

johnnyboyrun, on 07 March 2012 - 11:36 AM, said:

Probably the most important factor on the river now is if Lake Lyell is still overflowing. Anybody know?

Go to http://realtimedata....ov.au/water.stm then click on 'rivers & streams', '212 Hawkebury' and 'Cox's @ Lithgow' and you will see the discharge at that point about 3km down from spillway

[imhunt]

Latest values (11am today) from Cox's @ Lithgow 3km down from Lake Lyell and upstream of Six foot Crossing. River level cotinuing  to fall
via http://realtimedata....ov.au/water.stm

Latest instantaneous values Level (Metres) 1.440 11:00 07/03/2012 ↓ Discharge (ML/d) 1540.0 11:00 07/03/2012 ↓ Latest daily values Discharge (ML) 2450 00:00 06/03/2012 ↓


Data since 2012-02-06

Latest cross-section

[tymb]

I am assuming that the current drowning is over the coast and there are clear sky's over the mountains at the minute.........

[Koala1]

tymb, on 07 March 2012 - 08:22 PM, said:

I am assuming that the current drowning is over the coast and there are clear sky's over the mountains at the minute.........

Um, how would you like me to answer that in a way that makes you happy?  I reckon if I answer truthfully, you wont like what I say.......

[johnnyboyrun]

Radar really does tell the story, .... Doesn't look good at all now, although river levels seem to been remaining the same ..oh well, accomodation booked so will be going up there anyhow for a run...
Could be worse, at least we are all in a position to run these sort of distances or even at all.

Edited by johnnyboyrun, 07 March 2012 - 09:20 PM.

[imhunt]

10mm Rain at Mt Boyce 11k NNW of Katoomba as at 10pm Today (compared to forecast of 20-40mm) and worst looks over on the Radar.                       Think well be fine

http://www.weatherzo...c=63292&list=ob

[Kanimbla]

Well - the news up here is not great
I live here
And its pissing down
and has been most of the evening

Things can change in 24 hrs - but the odds are not great right now !

[Rico]

If I understand right Colin is out there right now taking notes.

Edited by Rico, 07 March 2012 - 09:42 PM.

[Colin]

Rico, on 07 March 2012 - 09:41 PM, said:

If I understand right Colin is out there right now taking notes.

Notes taken, there will be an email tonight, just awaiting some more info.

[Nova]

By lunch time on Saturday the river will be fine to cross.  lets hope it looks good on Friday .

It looks like by lunch on Friday the sun should be shining.  How fast does the river drop if its already under 0.9m?

Edited by Nova, 08 March 2012 - 02:59 AM.

[vtrbic]

Pissing down in Sydney right now. I'm trying really hard to be optimistic. C'mon!!!

[caleb]

I have to admit...my goodness it rained last night....and its still raining...noooooooooooooo...buckle year.........nooooooooooooo

[johnnyboyrun]

River rising again, soaked track and plenty more rain to come.... dont have to be genius to figure out its not
going to be on

[halfwaydown]

Cox @ Island Hill (Ikm down from 6ft crossing)
Last reading logged 1am
No drop, No rise.  Level level.

Attached Files

•  Cox River Island Hill 8th March.JPG   126.71K   36 downloads

[ozsprouts]

Its a pretty clear indication of how saturated the ground is when as soon as the rain falls the river heights go up.
I would have to agree with johnnyboy at this stage and im also going to claim my early East Coast Low (ECL) call in previous thread!
See you guys at Caves House for a few schooners!

[ozsprouts]

halfwaydown, on 08 March 2012 - 07:20 AM, said:

Cox @ Island Hill (Ikm down from 6ft crossing)
Last reading logged 1am
No drop, No rise.  Level level.

Check out
http://www.bom.gov.a...63000.tbl.shtml

0.83m at 3am
0.95m at 8am

Shes a on the way up again!

[Johnbo]

...all that tells you is that it changes quickly. I am a half glass full (or is that empty?) sort of guy!

[Nova]

If the rain stops this afternoon the ground will still be wet by Saturday but the river could be down lower enough to cross.

[knoddie]

I have stopped carbo loading

[imhunt]

Nova, on 08 March 2012 - 07:36 AM, said:

If the rain stops this afternoon the ground will still be wet by Saturday but the river could be down lower enough to cross.

Yep agree. Forecast is max 5-10mm rain for Katoomba today and only 1-5mm Fri, Sat
Radar shows Katoomba pretty clear at present but as others have quoted and per the Radar,  Sydney taken a hammering this morning
http://www.bom.gov.a...R713.loop.shtml

[arrtgrrl]

knoddie, on 08 March 2012 - 07:55 AM, said:

I have stopped carbo loading

Ha ha yup that was my quandry also.. to keep carbing or not

[Rico]

I'm doing even more carbo loading so I'm ready for a fall back fatass run with no aid stations and probably extra distance when I get lost.

[MountainMan]

Colin, on 07 March 2012 - 10:14 PM, said:

Notes taken, there will be an email tonight, just awaiting some more info.

I haven't had any emails since I registered. If there is an email update can they post it on here somewhere? Or maybe it could go on the 6ft Website?

Thanks,

[woswwf]

I'm a Cox's half-full kind of guy:

River levels not raised significantly overnight.
Most of the rain since 5pm Wednesday fell to the east of the ranges.
Seems to be clear over track at the moment.
Good forecast for the next 48 hours (assuming this low takes it's leave as predicted).

I'm still thinking it'll be on but we'll see...

[ozsprouts]

It has not stopped raining at Mount Boyce AWS (Katoomba) since 4:30 yesterday afternoon. Totals so far are 42mm!

See  http://www.weatherzo...92&list=ob  for the rainfall rates and totals.

Its not clear on the radar over the course. The radar doesn't work the same over the mountains due to the topography! Especially if the reflectivity is so strong close to the radar like it is now. Best way to see totals is in the obs.

See the Wollongong radar for the weather that is sweeping in off the coast headed for the mountains  at http://www.weatherzo.../nsw/wollongong

Totals will be high from this system.

Not good news but its the weather and i love it!

[arrtgrrl]

If the weather that is on the coast here at the moment is heading to the mountains.. i would not be hopeful as it has been very heavy rain

[Dave]

MountainMan, on 08 March 2012 - 08:08 AM, said:

I haven't had any emails since I registered. If there is an email update can they post it on here somewhere? Or maybe it could go on the 6ft Website?

MountainMan, just posted the content of the email on the 6ft Facebook page

http://www.facebook....200639933330044

[MountainMan]

Dave, on 08 March 2012 - 08:47 AM, said:

MountainMan, on 08 March 2012 - 08:08 AM, said:

I haven't had any emails since I registered. If there is an email update can they post it on here somewhere? Or maybe it could go on the 6ft Website?

MountainMan, just posted the content of the email on the 6ft Facebook page

http://www.facebook....200639933330044

Thanks!