59 replies to this topic

[andrew t]

Pacing for six foot has been on my mind so I took a look at  the
2004 splits spreadsheet.  Separating out factors other than pacing is
problematic so I decided to look at runners who seemed to have a good day.
I wrote a script to extract a list of runners who'd run Six Foot at
least twice prior to 2004 and who ran a PB in 2004.    Runners with the
same name might may have been confused but there shouldn't be enough to
affect the results.

For each runner, I looked at the Coxs River and Pluviometer splits as
fractions of these runners finishing time.  These didn't seem to vary
significantly with finishing time, i.e. faster runners spend similar
proportions of their time on each leg to slower runners.  The proportions
did vary between runners.

For these 59 runners the median splits (as fractions) were Coxes River
29.4% and Pluviometer 58.1%.  The median splits for the all 617 finishing
runners field was a little smaller: 28.9% and 57.5%.  So the 59 runners
were proportionately a little slower to the Cox's and a little faster
Pluvi to the finish than the rest of the field.  Its not clear there is
a real difference in pacing though.

To get a feeling for what fractional splits of 29.4% and 58.1% implied,
I generated this table of splits and paces  for finishing times from
3:30 to 7:00 .

Start - Coxs River		Coxs River - Pluviometer		Pluviometer - Finish
sec/km	split	sec/km	split	sec/km	split
3:59	1:01:41	4:41	2:01:58	4:38	3:30:00
4:10	1:04:37	4:55	2:07:46	4:51	3:40:00
4:22	1:07:33	5:08	2:13:35	5:04	3:50:00
4:33	1:10:29	5:22	2:19:23	5:18	4:00:00
4:44	1:13:26	5:35	2:25:12	5:31	4:10:00
4:56	1:16:22	5:48	2:31:00	5:44	4:20:00
5:07	1:19:18	6:02	2:36:49	5:57	4:30:00
5:18	1:22:14	6:15	2:42:37	6:11	4:40:00
5:30	1:25:11	6:29	2:48:26	6:24	4:50:00
5:41	1:28:07	6:42	2:54:14	6:37	5:00:00
5:52	1:31:03	6:55	3:00:03	6:50	5:10:00
6:04	1:33:59	7:09	3:05:51	7:04	5:20:00
6:15	1:36:56	7:22	3:11:40	7:17	5:30:00
6:27	1:39:52	7:36	3:17:28	7:30	5:40:00
6:38	1:42:48	7:49	3:23:17	7:43	5:50:00
6:49	1:45:44	8:03	3:29:05	7:57	6:00:00
7:01	1:48:40	8:16	3:34:54	8:10	6:10:00
7:12	1:51:37	8:29	3:40:42	8:23	6:20:00
7:23	1:54:33	8:43	3:46:31	8:36	6:30:00
7:35	1:57:29	8:56	3:52:19	8:50	6:40:00
7:46	2:00:25	9:10	3:58:07	9:03	6:50:00
7:58	2:03:22	9:23	4:03:56	9:16	7:00:00

I think the above table is interesting in that it indicates typical
splits for at least moderately experienced runners who ran a PB.
Unfortunately you can't infer its optimal pacing (for a typical runner).
and the altitude profile of the course probably means optimal pacing
varies significantly between individual runners anyway.  Personally,
and I'm OK on the climbs, the Pluvi splits look too fast for me.

Maybe more interesting - at least if you are obsessive like me - are
the appended details of the 59 runners my script selected.

Andrew

	Coxs River		Pluviometer		Finish
	split	fraction	split	fraction
Jonathan Blake	1:07:41	31.1%	2:08:56	59.3%	3:37:20.6
Tom Gleeson	1:04:13	29.0%	2:05:50	56.8%	3:41:28.3
Michael Sullohern	1:12:37	30.9%	2:18:03	58.7%	3:55:21.8
Stephen Sayers	1:06:59	28.0%	2:17:38	57.6%	3:59:06.4
Chris Graham	1:18:41	32.5%	2:27:06	60.7%	4:02:20.0
Martin Fryer	1:13:22	30.2%	2:24:07	59.2%	4:03:14.6
Andrew Lee	1:11:38	28.3%	2:24:38	57.1%	4:13:23.5
Jim Villiers	1:06:32	26.2%	2:26:31	57.6%	4:14:23.6
Richard Green	1:15:04	28.7%	2:33:19	58.6%	4:21:51.8
Andrew Taylor	1:18:21	29.8%	2:32:55	58.1%	4:23:00.9
Alan Watson	1:20:08	30.0%	2:35:23	58.2%	4:27:01.8
Marcus White	1:18:31	29.2%	2:33:32	57.2%	4:28:36.5
Rolf Kuelsen	1:21:25	29.4%	2:38:32	57.2%	4:37:01.1
Jordan Lefmann	1:16:13	27.5%	2:34:57	55.8%	4:37:34.8
Stuart Wagner	1:12:50	26.2%	2:34:32	55.6%	4:37:57.3
Mark Sparshott	1:26:27	30.1%	2:47:26	58.3%	4:47:13.9
Paul Ng	1:22:45	28.5%	2:42:22	56.0%	4:49:54.7
Paul Killeen	1:30:55	30.6%	2:49:13	57.0%	4:56:41.8
Keith Collin	1:28:06	29.4%	3:06:41	62.3%	4:59:46.5
Brian Smith	1:25:50	28.5%	2:54:07	57.9%	5:00:46.5
David Harris	1:34:25	31.3%	3:00:17	59.8%	5:01:14.3
Philip Murphy	1:30:25	29.9%	2:55:53	58.1%	5:02:50.1
Elouise Peach	1:25:38	28.0%	2:57:17	58.0%	5:05:56.6
Jan Herrmann	1:24:43	27.6%	2:45:23	53.8%	5:07:23.5
Anne Kidman	1:31:26	29.6%	2:57:52	57.5%	5:09:12.8
Adrian Engelbrecht	1:35:12	30.6%	3:03:40	59.0%	5:11:04.4
Damain Staunton	1:39:19	31.8%	3:10:30	61.1%	5:11:57.2
Greg McCann	1:28:10	28.2%	3:02:29	58.3%	5:12:47.2
Graham Wye	1:32:23	29.5%	3:03:22	58.6%	5:12:56.5
Tony Golden	1:32:13	29.4%	3:06:10	59.3%	5:13:57.7
Wayne Davis	1:32:55	29.4%	3:08:17	59.6%	5:15:45.9
Susan Morgan	1:38:26	30.9%	3:09:23	59.4%	5:18:44.4
Kevin Thomas	1:36:51	30.3%	3:09:59	59.5%	5:19:33.4
Ian Dempsey	1:32:15	28.8%	3:04:38	57.6%	5:20:40.5
Michael Limbrey	1:36:58	30.0%	3:08:58	58.4%	5:23:19.8
John Reeves	1:30:41	27.9%	3:04:31	56.9%	5:24:32.7
Herb Willems	1:26:48	26.7%	3:01:08	55.8%	5:24:44.0
Peter Bell	1:35:29	29.4%	3:06:18	57.4%	5:24:46.7
Rowan Vickers	1:24:55	26.1%	2:55:24	53.8%	5:26:02.1
Glen Ebzery	1:39:41	30.4%	3:13:07	58.9%	5:27:46.3
Graham Davis	1:30:43	27.4%	3:03:56	55.5%	5:31:19.2
Stephen Bodnar	1:35:24	28.7%	3:11:58	57.8%	5:32:17.4
Vicki Arrowsmith	1:38:58	29.6%	3:08:09	56.4%	5:33:50.6
Michael Eadie	1:40:24	30.0%	3:23:58	61.0%	5:34:27.8
Edward Bedzinski	1:37:33	29.0%	3:14:56	57.9%	5:36:37.9
Ray Wales	1:41:17	29.9%	3:22:17	59.6%	5:39:16.7
Anthony Hayes	1:35:39	28.2%	3:18:04	58.3%	5:39:43.5
Shane Simpson	1:37:44	28.5%	3:11:25	55.8%	5:43:17.6
Dean Simpson	1:37:47	28.5%	3:11:20	55.7%	5:43:17.9
Claire Rolley	1:39:27	28.7%	3:13:42	55.9%	5:46:45.0
Wayne Heffernan	1:39:28	28.7%	3:13:43	55.9%	5:46:45.3
Wayne Tibbitts	1:39:38	28.4%	3:25:31	58.7%	5:50:14.0
Esther Kerr	1:49:38	31.0%	3:28:55	59.1%	5:53:46.9
Anastasia Bachas	1:49:33	30.7%	3:31:27	59.2%	5:56:56.5
Deirdre Duncan	1:50:22	30.9%	3:33:04	59.6%	5:57:32.9
Brian Conroy	1:51:07	31.0%	3:35:20	60.0%	5:58:45.0
Eric Schmierer	1:43:29	28.0%	3:33:08	57.6%	6:10:12.0
Grant Moroney	1:50:29	28.2%	3:47:25	58.0%	6:32:07.8
Doug Chapman	1:50:56	28.2%	3:53:27	59.2%	6:34:02.6

[Jogger]

Andrew. I am stunned.

It might take me the rest of the year to assimilate and understand this.

I suspect that with 2 or 3 years worth of split times we will be able to draw up some REALLY good pace charts with proper statistical accuracy thresholds. It won't be me though as I scored a "Z" in stats at Uni (better you never realised scores went that low!)

Many thanks for your time put into this.

[plu]

This is excellent and supplements  this thread where the issue has been raised a bit.

Cheers

Nomad PLu

[Colin]

Bloody brilliant Andrew.

On the one hand it supports my contention that to run 4hrs (which I feel a sub 3hr marathoner can do) you need to be at Cox's in 1:10 (perhaps for someone like me) on average.

On the other hand one did it in 1:06 and another 1:18 which also may support the contention that some need to run faster where they can according to their strengths.

Would be interested in a long term study.

[Mister G]

Wow. I had to reread this a couple of times to really get the gist of it. This is excellent stuff, especially as I know a few of the runners in Andrew's list, and know the type of runner they are.

quote:

---

Originally posted by andrew t:
Personally, and I'm OK on the climbs, the Pluvi splits look too fast for me.

---

Same here, but I've produced a couple of "back halfs" at 6FT that I considered poor, but measure up statistically quite well here. Reflects my style of running I think, more than it reflects on the statistics.

Thanks Andrew, this is gold. All you 6FT veterans- it is our patriotic duty to keep running PBs over the next few years so we can give Andrew a big sample for a long term study.  :D

[Spud]

Excellent extrapolation Andrew.

I noticed I was pretty much right on median splits with a Coxs Split of 29.9%(median 29.1%)
and Pluvi right on the money 58.1%.

It would seem I gotta get my arse down to the Cox's a bit quicker this year, or not?

Awesome table,

Spud

[RMC]

Nicely done AndrewT.
Sort of backs up the estimated 5hr splits which  PastyBoy projected and
Mr G projected about a year ago.

..and in the same post how about that bike PastyBoy thinks Mr G rides. The memories of a year ago..

[AltyRunner]

I did the Six Foot Track for the first time last year. I wasn't sure how I would perform, so I took it easy until Cox's River, arriving in 375th position (1hr40). By taking it easy in this first stage of the race, I seemed to have a lot of energy left for the rest of the race and ended up finishing in 99th position (4hr51).

This year, I will be again be taking it really easy until Cox's River. It's a long race, there's no point using up too much energy in the early stages. Besides, it makes for a far more enjoyable race going past people than being overtaken.

[shane hayes]

Well i am going to have to run 6ftlike last year and have fast splits to river and really slow after pluvio.
so your statistics get skewed up  :D  
Nah, that will help me not to go out as hard next year.

[langswm]

My CoolLurker wife is desperate to know what split times (Cox's and Pluvi) she should be targetting for her 6ft debut. She does a 43m 10k, 95m 1/2m and 3.21 Full Marathon. Would love any suggestions, however broad they may be.

[RMC]

quote:

---

by langswm .."what split times (Cox's and Pluvi) she should be targetting for her 6ft debut"

---

Tell your wife to just enjoy the experience and don't worry too much about time. 10k and half marathons really mean nothing over the 6 foot track course. How good is she over hills? This is where the time is made up or lost. A good hill runner usually does pretty well at 6 foot.

[Horrie]

Looking at the statistics and knowing some of the runners in the tables, I would suggest your wife could run it around the 5 hour mark. So use the tables to look at what splits are required.

[Duffer]

What's the longest run - time and distance - that anyone would recommend to do in the coming weeks ahead of the race?

This will be my first time and I'm presently doing hill sessions once a week and doing a weekly long run on roads as well as other miles in between.

My long run last week was appox 38km and 3.16hrs and I'm wondering how much further I should go and what time I should aim for in training.

I'm aiming for somewhere between 5 - 6 hours on the day so trying to minimise the unknown.

Any advice?

[wombatface]

langswm, my advice would be not to target any split times in your debut 6 foot track. Just run very, very easily until Cox's - treat this part as the warm-up. Don't think about running hard until 2.5 hours has elapsed.

Duffer, don't worry about the distance of your long runs. The secret is to be out for a long time. Run slower. I do my long runs with a person who runs sub-4:30 for 6 foot and we average about 6:00/km pace in our long runs. Aim to get your long run up to 3 hours 30 minutes, maybe longer if you can.  (w)

[frankie17]

I love this thread.  Do people think these %s still hold true?

Last year I got to Cox's a good 5 minutes too fast for my goal time (per this) and sure enough I blew up from Pluvi.

Edited by frankie17, 14 December 2009 - 05:00 PM.

[Gasher]

frankie17, not sure where this was originally posted but Jo Blake has a Six Foot split calculator, all you do is enter your desired time & it gives you split times for Coxs & Pluvi. Won't stop you blowing up but a great guide.  6ft_split_calculator_v2.xls   19K   66 downloads

[Jogger]

all, v3 of the split calculator is on this page:
http://www.sixfoot.com/racestats.php

I can't remember the difference between v2 and v3...

[frankie17]

Looks like there;s a consistency around 58-59% of your total time spend getting to Pluvi, with lots of guesswork of the split to Cox's.  i.e. the time you gain to the river you lose up the next 2 hills.

[rodthehornet]

Is there a way of combining all the 6FT splits and finish times over the years into one spreadsheet??

Looking at the website it appears results started in excel format from 2004 and until 2009 this would give 4244 results.  This coincided with the KOTM splits.

Unfortunately results prior (pre excel maybe??) are not on the site in excel form (.php form) and this accounts for a bit over 5000 finishes.  

If it could be done, it would show where any runner fits in all time on 6FT - Cradle Mtn produces a similar list with name/year/time, though admittedly much smaller fields.

Also stats over a number of years could help a maths/stats/excel guru to develop a more accurate split calculator (V4??).  V3 seems to be conservative on the downhills, but strong on the climbs when I put in a few projected finish times and compared against past results.  Would be good to have a couple of questions in the calculator, rating your downhill/uphill capabilities and the splits reflecting same.

Hope this makes sense.....

Rod

[Colin]

rodthehornet, on Dec 14 2009, 10:44 PM, said:

Also stats over a number of years could help a maths/stats/excel guru to develop a more accurate split calculator (V4??).  V3 seems to be conservative on the downhills, but strong on the climbs when I put in a few projected finish times and compared against past results.  Would be good to have a couple of questions in the calculator, rating your downhill/uphill capabilities and the splits reflecting same.

Hope this makes sense.....

Rod

Averages of huge numbers won't give the most efficient splits though...most people in 6FT blow up rather than go steady.

Sleep Train's splits are probably the best.(in % terms).

[Jogger]

Rod - I believe hatless has produced a spreadsheet version of all runners, all finish results.
We just need to check it before being released.
hmmmm ... all splits would be interesting also.

[hatless]

Rod,

I have a spreadsheet with all runners' times as well as Coxs/Pluvi splits from 2004. (There are occasional holes in the splits and of course all of the Pluvi splits went AWOL last year).

I have done all sorts of analysis about trying to work out the optimal strategy for the run. The problem is that for all the data points (ie people's runs) you have no idea whether or not they ran well. That is, is a particular run "good" or not?

The one thing I will say, is that the very pointy end of the field run MUCH slower to Coxs than the rest of the field (taking 33-34% of their total time). I have been having a long-running argument with a friend of mine as to whether or not that means that everyone should run slower to the river. Although I suspect that most people go too quickly to the river, I have no basis to say that the optimal for everyone is the same (ie large) proportion as that for the top 20 of all time. I think that the top 20 or so are excellent hill runners and hardly notice them, thence they can fly up Pluvi. The rest of us mere mortals need to set aside a bit of extra time for this part.

My friend has a pile of degrees in both chemistry and economics and built a model of pacing based on keeping your heart rate constant as much as possible. If you have Garmin data for your runs in a previous year I might persuade him to run it through his models to see what it recommends for you. It is a much more sophisticated piece of analysis than the split calculator.

Having said all that, trying to work out optimal pacing strategies is a fascinating science/art.

Cheers,


h.

P.S. Now off for a run - not getting very fit thinking/talking/typing about 6FT!

Edited by hatless, 15 December 2009 - 05:52 AM.

[rodthehornet]

Thanks guys.  Just something that interests me, particularly the all time list.

Now if your mate could gain sufficient samples of course KM splits AND HR data, that would be an interesting study.

Rod

[frankie17]

rodthehornet, on Dec 15 2009, 07:48 AM, said:

Thanks guys.  Just something that interests me, particularly the all time list.

Now if your mate could gain sufficient samples of course KM splits AND HR data, that would be an interesting study.

Rod

I've seen someone do a regression on one person's output in order to get to a "constant HR" model and therefore see in what sections he overdid it.  



Use a regression approach to estimate the following model:

  HR(i) = a + b.HR(i-1) + c.GRAD(i) + d.SPEED(i)        (1)

where:

   HR(i)    = Av HR for the ith 250m section
   HR(i-1)  = As above, but for the section before
   GRAD(i)  = average gradient for the ith section
   SPEED(i) = Average running speed over ith section
   a .. d   = consants to be estimated by the OLS estimator



I am sure you would need HRs to work out an individual's optimal reacing strategy in arrears...that was the intention of this work. (e.g. hold back on the slope down to the river, speed up a little from along the Black Range)

[superflake]

What would be good for the website is to have the records for male and female for each split of the race.
Fastest to Cox's, KOM splits, and Pluvio to the finish splits.

Sleep Trains 1:01:46 from 2009 looks to be quickest to Cox's.

Paul Arthurs KOM from 2007 in 54:01 just pipping Dan Green's 54:20 from 2005. Unfortunate the Pluvio clock was out this year so no official sleep train split for KOM. Maybe if Sleep Train had his unofficial time off his watch.

The split from Pluvio to the finish might be a bit of a pain to work out.

Fats 1:22:32 from 2007 and Matt Robbies 1:22:46 from 2008 appear to be the quickest. Sleep train did 2:14 Cox's to the finish so who knows what he was fastest at the hills or black range?

Didn't look up the females sorry.

Of course the KOM and Pluvio to finish splits may have been beaten this year by Sleep Train but due to the timing clock fault we won't know. He did 2:14 from Cox's to the finish(29.5ks).

And for any new runners contemplating racing Sleep Train to the river in 2010 you may end up in the back of an SES troopie unless you have the legs for Black Range.

[Colin]

frankie17, on Dec 15 2009, 08:23 AM, said:

Use a regression approach to estimate the following model:

  HR(i) = a + b.HR(i-1) + c.GRAD(i) + d.SPEED(i)        (1)

where:

   HR(i)    = Av HR for the ith 250m section
   HR(i-1)  = As above, but for the section before
   GRAD(i)  = average gradient for the ith section
   SPEED(i) = Average running speed over ith section
   a .. d   = consants to be estimated by the OLS estimator

You left out +e.LAPTOP...for the weight of the laptop in your backpack

superflake, on Dec 15 2009, 10:07 AM, said:

Sleep Trains 1:01:46 from 2009 looks to be quickest to Cox's.

Paul Arthurs KOM from 2007 in 54:01 just pipping Dan Green's 54:20 from 2005. Unfortunate the Pluvio clock was out this year so no official sleep train split for KOM. Maybe if Sleep Train had his unofficial time off his watch.
....
Fats 1:22:32 from 2007 and Matt Robbies 1:22:46 from 2008 appear to be the quickest. Sleep train did 2:14 Cox's to the finish so who knows what he was fastest at the hills or black range?

I think ST's Cox split would be no where near fastest...I know a gentleman who crashed and burned (not too badly) in first one off a 1:04...

....where he did it was both Pluvi and Black Range...from memory (after race) I think he said 53 which would give him fastest for both.

Edited by Colin, 15 December 2009 - 09:28 AM.

[Jogger]

back in the old days we had splits of each runner at each aid station. It would be good to compare those ...

[Fox]

JoggerK, on Dec 15 2009, 10:19 AM, said:

back in the old days we had splits of each runner at each aid station. It would be good to compare those ...

The fastest I can see from the old days was Greg Love 1.05 to Coxs in 1992 (more gates and poles then) and Don Wallace 58mins KOM in 1991.  Times were recorded in whole minutes only.

[Pasty]

Just a thought, but it would be interesting to see if there is an improvement in times this year given that the race filled early.  My reasoning is that if the race fills early, more athletes are committed earlier to the race, and thus train harder/better/longer. Of course you would have to weight this against any trends over the years of changes in times in general (not sure which way we are trending, though somewhere I think I read that average/median times are slowing? while the winner times are of course faster).  You would also want to separate the virgins from the experienced 6fters.

[superflake]

Colin, on Dec 15 2009, 10:12 AM, said:

I think ST's Cox split would be no where near fastest...I know a gentleman who crashed and burned (not too badly) in first one off a 1:04...

....where he did it was both Pluvi and Black Range...from memory (after race) I think he said 53 which would give him fastest for both.

Sleep Trains 1:01:46 is the fastest since 2004 when I can see the splits off the website.
Plenty are in the 1:03-1:06 range. Dan Green did 1:03:02 in 2006 when 2nd.

Of course we have no official KOM for Sleep Train so King Arthur remains at present as the quickest.

[Colin]

So that guy's 1:04 in 2001 would have been really fast then...funny thing , he was in sub 4hr potential but had never been on track and just going according to profile...that would have been a good year to go sub 4, the winner was only 3:52

[Rico]

Colin, on Dec 15 2009, 10:12 AM, said:

I think he said 53

Yeah I was just having a look through his blog and he says 53 in his race report.

[Colin]

So we can assume he has both fastest for Pluvi and on Black Range...


However...

superflake, on Dec 15 2009, 11:10 AM, said:

Sleep Trains 1:01:46 is the fastest since 2004 when I can see the splits off the website.

He only passed Matt Robbie at mini mini.

There must be other non winners that have gone out fast too.

[superflake]

Colin, on Dec 15 2009, 12:56 PM, said:

So we can assume he has both fastest for Pluvi and on Black Range...

However...

He only passed Matt Robbie at mini mini.

There must be other non winners that have gone out fast too.

You are correct Colin.
I apologise I missed Matt Robbie.   He was fastest in 1:01:12.

[frankie17]

hatless, on Dec 15 2009, 06:44 AM, said:

The one thing I will say, is that the very pointy end of the field run MUCH slower to Coxs than the rest of the field (taking 33-34% of their total time). I have been having a long-running argument with a friend of mine as to whether or not that means that everyone should run slower to the river. Although I suspect that most people go too quickly to the river, I have no basis to say that the optimal for everyone is the same (ie large) proportion as that for the top 20 of all time. I think that the top 20 or so are excellent hill runners and hardly notice them, thence they can fly up Pluvi.

Hatless,

I saw Jo Blake's percentage to Cox's was way outside the 99% CI.  I guess you are saying most if not all the fast ones are likewise.  I can't help think it's not so much the avg speed to Pluvi as the speed they can maintain after Pluvi, up the Black Range where we mere mortals are stricken with cramps or golycogen deficiency.

Are you able to put your compendium of data on the SixFoot website so likeminded individuals can have a play with the data set?  Have you linked names between years to any extent?  If you have the daily temps that would be useful too.

[hatless]

frankie17, on Dec 23 2009, 08:37 AM, said:

Hatless,

I saw Jo Blake's percentage to Cox's was way outside the 99% CI.  I guess you are saying most if not all the fast ones are likewise.  I can't help think it's not so much the avg speed to Pluvi as the speed they can maintain after Pluvi, up the Black Range where we mere mortals are stricken with cramps or golycogen deficiency.

Are you able to put your compendium of data on the SixFoot website so likeminded individuals can have a play with the data set?  Have you linked names between years to any extent?  If you have the daily temps that would be useful too.

Hey Frankie,

Thanks for your post (I only read it after I answered your PM).

To answer your question, I did some analysis and you see that the fast guys generally run (proportionately) slower to the river. I reckon this is a function of them being better hill runners and then running faster up the hills. (Proportions are a zero sum game and so they have to run slower somewhere). I'll look through the analysis and post it when I get a chance.

I have a lot of data for the 6FT which I have cleaned up lately. I might try to put it all in some sheets and post it on the website. If I get around to doing this it will be early in the new year.

Hope you have a great Christmas,

h.

[frankie17]

hatless, on Dec 23 2009, 05:21 PM, said:

I have a lot of data for the 6FT which I have cleaned up lately. I might try to put it all in some sheets and post it on the website. If I get around to doing this it will be early in the new year.

Hope you have a great Christmas,

h.

h.,

Saw this post after PMing you again!  No probs.  Havin the clean data will help enormously...the hourly temps are great too.

[Sir Runalot]

Great thread Andrew. Love this sort of discussion.

After checking splits for my PB in 2008, your table (for me at least) is absolutely spot on - I couldn't believe it. Cox's was out by just 20 sec and Pluvi was bang on. The average percentage breakdown is clearly right for me. I can use these percentages to set targets for this year's PB assault.

SR

[Jogger]

for those just aiming to break 7hrs, then this is the pacing schedule/split times for the 7hr sweeper:
http://www.sixfoot.c...hrpacechart.jpg

Note: its not a flat pace the whole way.

[Digger]

I've always believed the following:

Start to Megalong Valley=15%
Megalong Valley to Cox's River=15%
Cox's River to Pluviometer=30%
Pluviometer to finish=40%

And this really means:

When you get to the Megalong Valley, double the elapsed time, and that is about what you will get to the Cox's river in.

Then, at the Cox's River, double your elapsed time, and thats about when you will get to the Pluviometer.

At the Pluviometer, who cares, as by then you have no control, as the course is now controlling you, and we'll all just do our best to get home.

And the virgins should remember that its only about 10km from the Cox's River to the Pluviometer, and not many runners break 60mins for this section.(In fact 75min/80min is pretty respectable).

[Jogger]

digger, the chart I published had:
megalong 1.05 (15%)
coxs 2.10 (30%)
pluvio 4.10 (60%)
finish 7.00 (100%)

So I don't think we were disagreeing ?

[Digger]

JoggerK, on Jan 12 2010, 12:00 AM, said:

digger, the chart I published had:
megalong 1.05 (15%)
coxs 2.10 (30%)
pluvio 4.10 (60%)
finish 7.00 (100%)

So I don't think we were disagreeing ?

I didn't read all of the other posts(maybe I should have).

I just added what I found seemed to common amongst our group.

I think I analysised the results about 10 years ago.

The other thing I've noted, if you are behind you schedule at the Megalong Valley, if you try to catch up before the Cox's River(or the Pluviometer), you will crash and Burn on Black Range Rd, so what ever pace you do to the Megalong, just keep at it, and you will survive

[plu]

Hi all,


Sorry cannot find a more relevant thread for this post.  This has been in the past a good indicator of  the form of some Sydney Six Foot Track runners. One past winner  is highly placed.

cheers  Plu

[Jogger]

As an addendum to the Detailed Course Description, Chris Johnson has annotated with a guide on how to pace/run each section : PDF format and MS-WORD format.

[Rock Doctor]

JoggerK, on Mar 7 2010, 01:38 AM, said:

As an addendum to the Detailed Course Description, Chris Johnson has annotated with a guide on how to pace/run each section : PDF format and MS-WORD format.

Great guide for a first timer. However, beware the error in the example splits. The examples for "Strong Outperform", "AOK" and "good middy time" all read 10min slower than they should if you add 1+2.

[PeterPlodder]

JoggerK, on Mar 7 2010, 03:38 PM, said:

As an addendum to the Detailed Course Description, Chris Johnson has annotated with a guide on how to pace/run each section : PDF format and MS-WORD format.

Both of those links take you to the PDF version.

[rodthehornet]

Bumping an old thread up.

Last couple of years, I have used a pace bracelet for 6ft.  Some say it is not possible, but after a few years you build up some data on your km splits and as long as you are realistic with your fitness levels, the splits come out accurate to aid you pacing the course.  Best to have a garmin, set it on 1km auto laps and it spits out your splits as you are running along and you can compare your pace to the pace chart.  Helps heaps, particularly if you tend to over race to the river and focuses your efforts on the harder sections of the course.

We have the various guides from Jo Blake giving splits for River/Pluvi/Home and we have the trusted 30:30:40 ratio for the course.  They are great guides, but the question for a newbie or out of towner is, "I should do 1:30 to the river, how fast is that."  Very tricky question if you havent done the course.  

Anyway there were a flurry of emails behind the scenes last week with a few players involved in 6ft. I raised the idea of a split calculator, based on previous wisdom and garmin data.  We referred back to our excel/maths guru CR Hatless and he has come up with a 6ft pacing bracelet.  Hatless had some statistics from a pace study paper and has factored in the terrain/pace variances into the calculations.  I have compared the bracelet prediction for various times to my past results and it is remarkably accurate.  Note this is a GUIDE only.  There will be some anomalies, but it by and large represents the flow of the course.  Here's how to use it:

1.  Work out your goal time.  Be honest.  If you dont have a clue use 1.5 times your marathon time.  Use your past performance, current fitness levels etc.  As for any pacing chart, if you arent up to the goal, the split chart is not going to get you over the line.

2.  Work out your strength and weakness.  As an example my (relative) strength is downhill running.  The calculator is set on a default of 30:30:40.  I adjust it slightly to 29:31:40.  Slight change but it does affect the splits a fair bit.  You might use the start slow strategy, so change to 31:30:39 and you will see what I mean.

3.  Input your goal time and the ratio.  Play around with these to see what should work for you.

4.  Print out the split chart.  Cut into a strip and laminate.  Staple around your wrist (or slip in your pocket) and away you go.  It will give you km by km guide to your goal time, say to the river.  If you are hitting your splits, you will be very close to your goal time.

There you go.  Some might think it is overkill.  Some might find it useful.  It is a fun tool that could help a newbie hold it together and not get to the river puffing and panting.  Could also help someone chasing an ambitious PB in spreading their effort over the course.

All credit to Hatless for the chart.  Any feedback post race will help us fine tune the splits.

Attached Files

•  six foot track pacing bracelet.xls   35K   75 downloads

[runhard]

My hat goes off to Hatless!  He is a genius  

[Jogger]

I have posted the spreadsheet to the race stats page on the six foot website:
http://www.sixfoot.com/racestats.php

[hatless]

rodthehornet, on 06 March 2011 - 08:54 AM, said:

Bumping an old thread up.

Last couple of years, I have used a pace bracelet for 6ft.  Some say it is not possible, but after a few years you build up some data on your km splits and as long as you are realistic with your fitness levels, the splits come out accurate to aid you pacing the course.  Best to have a garmin, set it on 1km auto laps and it spits out your splits as you are running along and you can compare your pace to the pace chart.  Helps heaps, particularly if you tend to over race to the river and focuses your efforts on the harder sections of the course.

We have the various guides from Jo Blake giving splits for River/Pluvi/Home and we have the trusted 30:30:40 ratio for the course.  They are great guides, but the question for a newbie or out of towner is, "I should do 1:30 to the river, how fast is that."  Very tricky question if you havent done the course.  

Anyway there were a flurry of emails behind the scenes last week with a few players involved in 6ft. I raised the idea of a split calculator, based on previous wisdom and garmin data.  We referred back to our excel/maths guru CR Hatless and he has come up with a 6ft pacing bracelet.  Hatless had some statistics from a pace study paper and has factored in the terrain/pace variances into the calculations.  I have compared the bracelet prediction for various times to my past results and it is remarkably accurate.  Note this is a GUIDE only.  There will be some anomalies, but it by and large represents the flow of the course.  Here's how to use it:

1.  Work out your goal time.  Be honest.  If you dont have a clue use 1.5 times your marathon time.  Use your past performance, current fitness levels etc.  As for any pacing chart, if you arent up to the goal, the split chart is not going to get you over the line.

2.  Work out your strength and weakness.  As an example my (relative) strength is downhill running.  The calculator is set on a default of 30:30:40.  I adjust it slightly to 29:31:40.  Slight change but it does affect the splits a fair bit.  You might use the start slow strategy, so change to 31:30:39 and you will see what I mean.

3.  Input your goal time and the ratio.  Play around with these to see what should work for you.

4.  Print out the split chart.  Cut into a strip and laminate.  Staple around your wrist (or slip in your pocket) and away you go.  It will give you km by km guide to your goal time, say to the river.  If you are hitting your splits, you will be very close to your goal time.

There you go.  Some might think it is overkill.  Some might find it useful.  It is a fun tool that could help a newbie hold it together and not get to the river puffing and panting.  Could also help someone chasing an ambitious PB in spreading their effort over the course.

All credit to Hatless for the chart.  Any feedback post race will help us fine tune the splits.

Here is another version with an aid-station bracelet as well. Given the lack of km markers out there, this might be more useful.

You can also add your goal time for the deviation (this only affects the aid-station bracelet) and you have everything you need.

The splits are based off my data from the last three years. The first aid station (A) seems to have moved around a bit in that time, so take that split with a pinch of salt.

Hope it's useful.

Cheers,

h.

Attached Files

•  Running bracelet xl03.xls   42.5K   83 downloads